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Analysis of the Application of the Rolling Forecast Method for Personal Care Products at PT. Kosmetiku
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Demand planning is a significant factor that affects the performance of each stage
of supply chain management in fast-moving consumer goods. An unavoidable problem is the
inaccuracy of demand planning which has an impact on production planning for the
procurement of personal care products. The more products, the more the accuracy of demand
forecasting varies, so it is necessary to make efforts to improve the quality of demand planning
to have an impact on effective, efficient demand planning and increase customer satisfaction.
This research is a mixed method with a concurrent embedded strategy by providing a simulated
rolling forecast process (to be) of the current rolling forecast process (as is). The analysis uses
the method of rolling forecast, double moving average, double exponential smoothing, and
forecast error calculation with Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE). The purposive
sampling method is used to calculate demand forecasting for 2022 focusing on product
categories with the 80/20 Pareto principle, where 20% of products generate 80% of the
company's revenue. This research improves the business process by implementing a planning
time horizon that is dissected into 3 months consisting of frozen, slushy, and liquid periods in
a rolling forecast and setting safety stock to be obeyed by distributors to get the smallest
forecast error rate. The appropriate demand forecasting method for forecasting product demand
based on test results shows that each product requires a different forecasting method, depending
on the characteristics of each product's historical data.
Keywords: Demand Forecast, Demand Planning, Personal Care, Planning Horizon, Rolling
Forecast
Tenaka Budiman - Personal Name
Harry Purwoko - Personal Name
Laura Malau - Personal Name
Theresye Yoanita Octora - Personal Name
Tri Mulyani Setyowati - Personal Name
Harry Purwoko - Personal Name
Laura Malau - Personal Name
Theresye Yoanita Octora - Personal Name
Tri Mulyani Setyowati - Personal Name
2686-6331
NONE
electronic file
Vol. 5, No. 3, February 2024
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